Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.017093 0.019349 0.021793 0.024638 0.027861 0.031399 0.035579
2025-09-07 0.013690 0.016832 0.020529 0.025201 0.030953 0.037813 0.046626
2025-09-14 0.011216 0.014591 0.018789 0.024402 0.031720 0.040957 0.053528
2025-09-21 0.009659 0.013157 0.017714 0.024091 0.032808 0.044333 0.060781
2025-09-28 0.008321 0.011794 0.016500 0.023356 0.033113 0.046547 0.066524
2025-10-05 0.007775 0.011422 0.016544 0.024278 0.035697 0.052004 0.077175
2025-10-12 0.007221 0.010961 0.016386 0.024851 0.037776 0.056859 0.087338
2025-10-19 0.006766 0.010586 0.016296 0.025479 0.039947 0.061978 0.098301
2025-10-26 0.006187 0.009956 0.015749 0.025334 0.040877 0.065239 0.106611
2025-11-02 0.005719 0.009448 0.015335 0.025338 0.042011 0.068864 0.115762
2025-11-09 0.005212 0.008830 0.014682 0.024881 0.042325 0.071155 0.122854
2025-11-16 0.004911 0.008520 0.014502 0.025181 0.043905 0.075629 0.133987
2025-11-23 0.004540 0.008068 0.014056 0.025006 0.044690 0.078875 0.143388
2025-11-30 0.004329 0.007876 0.014038 0.025579 0.046837 0.084670 0.157884
2025-12-07 0.003924 0.007298 0.013290 0.024768 0.046402 0.085800 0.163876
2025-12-14 0.003634 0.006905 0.012838 0.024453 0.046840 0.088528 0.173066
2025-12-21 0.003313 0.006426 0.012189 0.023706 0.046386 0.089532 0.178985
2025-12-28 0.003240 0.006413 0.012408 0.024642 0.049252 0.097085 0.198468
2026-01-04 0.003126 0.006311 0.012448 0.025223 0.051460 0.103518 0.216240
2026-01-11 0.003027 0.006227 0.012515 0.025862 0.053828 0.110446 0.235625
2026-01-18 0.002848 0.005969 0.012212 0.025714 0.054557 0.114088 0.248373
2026-01-25 0.002699 0.005759 0.011991 0.025719 0.055602 0.118455 0.263043
2026-02-01 0.002517 0.005463 0.011568 0.025255 0.055598 0.120596 0.272979